Florida isn’t in the path, but could the Pacific’s first system signal a busy hurricane season?

The first tropical system of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed — and while it won’t impact Florida, forecasters say it’s a sign of what’s to come.

Tropical Depression One-E, which developed shortly after the Eastern Pacific season began on May 15, is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alvin and make landfall in Mexico early next week, according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner.

Why you should care:

According to Garner, this indicates that the general region, including the Caribbean, is finally warm enough to support a tropical system. 

Some models suggest (as they often do this time of year) that the Central American Gyre (a semi-permanent low pressure that can form over Central America) may spin off some energy that could become a tropical system in the western Caribbean in mid-June.

Areas to watch

What we know:

The Climate Prediction Center has forecast the highlighted region below as one to watch in mid-June for tropical development. 

It’s too soon to say not only whether it will happen, but also what it could become or where it might lead – as models are all over the place, typical for early-season potential.

The Central American Gyre is a semi-permanent low pressure system that sits over Central America this time of year and can "spin off" little bits of energy that can grow into tropical systems. That's what the scenario here would be. 

These are notoriously difficult to forecast because, 8 times out of 10, the models forecasting cyclogenesis are just  – wrong. But, the table is set with warm water, low wind shear and favorable atmospheric conditions.

MORE | Tracking The Tropics: FOX 35 2025 Hurricane Season Preview

When does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season start?

The season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025. However, it is possible for a rare system to develop outside those timeframes. The "peak" of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically Sept. 10, though tropica activity increases between mid-August through mid-October. 

According to the National Hurricane Center, the first named tropical storm of a season typically happens in mid-to-late June. The first hurricane typically happens in early-to-mid August, while the first major hurricane (Cat. 3 or stronger) happens in late August or early September.

RELATED | NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

How many tropical storms and hurricanes is NOAA predicting expected this year?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that the 2025 season will be more active than average. However, it is predicted to be less busy than in 2024.

NOAA's hurricane forecast:

• 13-19 named storms
• 6-10 hurricanes
• 3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)

How many tropical storms and hurricanes are there in an average hurricane season?

• 14 named storms
• 9 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes

What are this year's tropical storm names?

Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide.

• Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dexter
• Erin
• Fernand
• Gabrielle
• Humberto
• Imelda
• Jerry
• Karen
• Lorenzo
• Melissa
• Nestor
• Olga
• Pablo
• Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy

STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO:

• Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines
• Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar
• Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines
• FOX Local: Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV

WeatherNewsNews