Tropical development possible in Gulf in mid-July, NWS says. Could it impact Florida?
Tropical update: July 9, 2025
FOX 35 Meteorologist Laurel Blanchard has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs July 1 - November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has released its latest long-range tropical forecast, which has flagged an area with potential for tropical activity mid-July in the Gulf.
What we know:
According to the NWS's Climate Prediction Center, there is at least a 20% chance of tropical development in the northern Gulf, close to the southern U.S. Coast, between July 16 and July 22.
While this is not an official area of interest or forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the two agencies do work together. The Climate Prediction Center issues these tropical outlooks before the NHC does.
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Ocean waters in the Gulf are what is average for mid-September right now. The rest of the basin remains "closed for business" but the conditions close to home – such as Tropical Storm Barry recently in the Gulf and Tropical Storm Chantal last week off South Carolina – can be marginally favorable through the end of July.
How could it develop?
This slight risk of tropical cyclone formation is now outlined for the northern Gulf Coast of the U.S. for week 2, where weak troughing and surface convergence over very warm Gulf waters has the potential to spin up a closed low. The Euro model in particular tries to hint at this being a potential scenario.
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Could it impact Florida?
Local perspective:
This is still several days out timing wise, but there is the small potential for a tropical system to form in the nearby vicinity mid-July. Bottom line, there's still a lot of uncertainty other than the fact that Gulf waters are very warm for this time of year and could support development.
Should any storm form, the next tropical name on the 2025 Atlantic Storm name list is Dexter.
The Source: This story was written based on information the FOX 35 Storm Team gathered from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center on July 9, 2025.