NHC: Tropical Depression 9 forms in Gulf, forecast to become Cat. 2 hurricane

Tropical Depression Nine, formerly designated as Invest 92L, has formed in the Gulf, according to the National Hurricane Center, and is forecast to quickly strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the southern U.S. coastline.

Tropical Storm Nine forms in Gulf, could become Cat. 2 hurricane before U.S. landfall

What we know:

The NHC said the newly developed tropical depression is forecast to become a tropical storm at the latest by midday Wednesday. Once named, it will be called Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs).

The storm will have a limited window to develop and is expected to become a hurricane – potentially up to a Category 2 storm – by Thursday as it turns to the north.

Tracking Tropical Storm Nine

Timeline:

A landfall is expected either late Friday night or Saturday morning anywhere between South Alabama and Louisiana. Wind shear and drier air will start to impact a storm at landfall and weaken at some. That does not mean it will have minimal impact. It will still be an impactful storm for the deep south.

Lots of rain and some embedded tornadoes on the eastern side of the circulation are likely as it moves up into the deep south this weekend.

Those who live along the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle are being told to prepare for the potential of heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge later this week, regardless of where the system ultimately tracks.

2026 Atlantic hurricane season

There have been eight tropical storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and zero hurricanes. Isaias would become the first hurricane of the season.

Impacts to Florida?

Local perspective:

While it's too soon to know exactly where the storm will go or how strong it will be, the NHC said the northern U.S. Gulf coast will expect the biggest impact. 

2 forecast scenarios for Isaias

There are two big players in the upper level meteorological setup: low pressure over Texas will help lift the storm north while, at the same time, high pressure will block the hurricane from hitting central or south Florida.

The faster the storm develops, and taller it gets, the greater influence that upper level high exerts on it. Therefore, faster and stronger sooner will likely cause a western side of the cone track.

A weaker or slower storm likely feels less influence from that Texas upper level low, and likely takes a more elongated turn and drifts into the western Florida Panhandle for a landfall.

Wednesday into Thursday morning will be the key time to watch this trend.

The storm will not directly impact Central Florida, but could produce some big swells on the West Coast beaches of Florida this weekend.

The Panhandle and North Florida could experience strong winds, heavy rain, and potential storm surge later this week and weekend.

Those who live along the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle should stay alert and monitor all updates on the storm's track, the NHC said.