2025 Atlantic hurricane season: NOAA maintains above-average outlook, lowers storm count

ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its mid-season update for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, maintaining an above-average outlook but slightly lowering its storm count from its original May forecast.

This update follows closely behind Colorado State University’s (CSU) Aug. 6 release, which also held firm on a highly active forecast for the rest of the season. 

What’s changed in NOAA’s outlook?

Compared to NOAA’s initial May forecast, the Aug. 7 update slightly reduces the overall range for named storms and hurricanes by one, though it still calls for an above-average season.

NOAA is predicting 13 to 18 named storms, including five to nine hurricanes, with two to five expected to become major hurricanes, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. During an average year, the Atlantic basin sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

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So far, everything's going at a near-normal pace, but conditions are becoming much more favorable for tropical development as we head toward the last third of August, and as we reach our seasonal peak on Sept. 10.

Peak season still ahead

What's next:

Historically, over 90% of hurricane activity happens between mid-August and late October, meaning we’ve only just entered the most dangerous phase of the season. 

As always, even in a below-average year, it only takes one landfalling storm to make the season historic for any one community.

What does this mean for Florida?

Local perspective:

With above-normal storm activity still likely, and a very active mid-to-late August forecast in the Atlantic basin by the latest computer models, you should review hurricane plans, have your supplies at the ready and stay close to the FOX 35 Storm Team forecasts each day. 

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The combination of warm water and favorable atmospheric conditions in the western Atlantic and Gulf means storms may strengthen rapidly, giving less time to react.

2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Big picture view:

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. 

While the season lasts for six months, the most intense period is generally from mid-August to October. The peak in hurricane activity is linked to favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions like warm sea surface temperatures and specific wind patterns. Although the peak is in the later months, storms can form before and after the official season dates. 

Forecasters are predicting an above-average hurricane season for 2025, with the potential for more named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes compared to historical averages. 

VIDEO: 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast explained

FOX 35 Meteorologist Laurel Blanchard and Noah Bergren discuss Colorado State University's April hurricane forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Plus, a researcher with Colorado State University joins to discuss how this prediction it put together, and what factors are influencing this year's forecast.