Fourth of July weather in Central Florida: How much will it rain? Timeline, impacts, forecast | FOX 51 Gainesville
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Fourth of July weather in Central Florida: How much will it rain? Timeline, impacts, forecast

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Published  July 2, 2025 2:02pm EDT
Weather Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

The Brief

    • An unsettled weather pattern will heighten the risk of flooding across Central Florida.
    • Tropical moisture will bring continued waves and rounds of heavy downpours and storms into the Fourth of July weekend.
    • By the time the weekend wraps up, we're expecting to have accumulated around 2 to 4 inches of rain across Central Florida.

ORLANDO, Fla. - An unsettled weather pattern will heighten the risk of flooding across Central Florida, especially during peak Fourth of July holiday travel and events.

Residents and visitors are encouraged to monitor forecasts closely as the situation evolves. 

Here's a look at what to expect from the weather ahead of the holiday weekend. 

What will the weather look like for the Fourth of July weekend?

What To Expect:

Tropical moisture will bring continued waves and rounds of heavy downpours and storms into the weekend. 

So far, Saturday appears to be the soggier day of the two with a 70% chance of showers and storms. 

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By the time the weekend wraps up, we're expecting to have accumulated around 2 to 4 inches of rain across Central Florida. 

The best chances of rain will begin around noon and last through around 9 p.m. Again, there will be breaks in the rain, but when it does rain the downpours will be heavy and dump a lot of rain over a short timeframe.

Fourth of July travel at Orlando International Airport (MCO)

More than 1.4 million people are expected to fly into or out of Orlando International Airport (MCO) this week ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.

Here are the top five busiest days expected at MCO:

  • Sunday, July 6–175,559 (arrivals & departures)
  • Sunday, June 29–174,053
  • Monday, July 7–167,536
  • Monday, June 30–166,746
  • Saturday, July 5–166,508

What will the weather look like for the rest of the workweek?

What's next:

A fading cold front will gradually move into Central Florida over the next two days. It will be fading as it stalls out over the peninsula of Florida. This, combined with tropical moisture and the chance of an area of low pressure forming along the stalled front, will help to bring repeated rounds of heavy rain and storms. 

Exactly where the low develops will be a factor in how we'll see a 70% chance of rain, so while heavy rain is likely, it will not be a complete and total washout for Thursday or Friday, and the rain will not last all day. There will be some dry spots and periods of dry time, though they may be short-lived.

With these types of downpours, when it rains it will pour and dump a lot of rain over a short span of time. For the Fourth of July holiday specifically, it will be a close call for any fireworks shows as scattered showers will still be likely as the sun sets.

Will the tropical disturbance impact Florida?

Why you should care:

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) say a weak area of low pressure could form near the southeastern U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts this weekend and there is an increasing chance it could gradually strengthen into a tropical or subtropical depression as it stalls over Florida. NHC gives the system a near 0% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, and a 40% chance over the next seven days.

RELATED: National Hurricane Center monitoring potential tropical disturbance that could impact Florida

Because of this system, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across Central Florida throughout the week. The FOX 35 Storm Team has designated Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as Weather Impact Days. 

This sytem will likely bring daily storms, showers and downpours to the state. Some may be severe with strong winds and large hail. With plenty of tropical moisture in place, a lot of rain will fall over a short period of time. The best chances of rain will be during the afternoon, with the peak heating of the day starting Wednesday and lasting into at least Saturday.

So far, areas along the Florida Gulf coast, specifically near Tampa through the Big Bend region, will be where the highest rainfall totals will be. This is where more than 6 inches of rain could fall.

How much rain will the Orlando area get?

Local perspective:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across Central Florida throughout the week.

Rainfall totals will vary across the region, but several inches are expected to fall in nearly every county by the weekend. 

RELATED: TIMELINE: When will tropical rain arrive in Orlando, and how long will it last?

Coastal areas from the eastern Florida Panhandle southward through the Big Bend and into the Sarasota area will likely see the highest rain totals this week. Parts of Florida's Big Bend from about the Perry area through Cedar Key may receive as much as 6 to 10 inches.  

Heavy rain is also expected along the Atlantic Coast of Florida from south of Jacksonville through Daytona Beach, as well as in communities along the Space Coast from Cocoa Beach to Melbourne.  

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Daily downpours and storms are likely, and meteorologists say the wet weather won’t be confined to the usual afternoon hours.

The exact timing for the heaviest rain still needs to be fine-tuned as we move through this week, but models show several inches of rain could fall over the next seven days. By Saturday, as the tropical moisture moves over the Atlantic Ocean, the chances of a tropical depression forming off the Southeast United States increases.

Big picture view:

AAA projects a record 72.2 million Americans are expected to travel during the July Fourth weekend, driven by the holiday falling on a Friday. 

Flooding, rain, lightning, and possible flight delays are poised to impact travel from Florida along the eastern seaboard.  Cities from Tampa and Orlando to New York and Boston may see weather-related disruptions, making travel logistics challenging nationwide.

RELATED: When will it rain in Orlando? Timeline, forecast, live radar for Weather Impact Days

Fireworks will be dampened across Central Florida with the likelihood of heavy rain.

2025 Atlantic storm names

Dig deeper:

Whenever the next named storm develops in the Atlantic Basin, it will get the name Chantal.

FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar and Live Weather Cameras

Track live when storms move across your area using the FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar below. You can also watch as heavy rain moves across Central Florida on our Live Weather Cameras' page here. 

More radar maps from FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar

The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the FOX 35 Storm Team and the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

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