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ORLANDO, Fla. - Florida’s races for governor and U.S. Senate are effectively tied, according to a new poll.
The latest numbers underscore a competitive political landscape despite major fundraising differences between Republicans and Democrats.
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An independent survey by MDW/EDGE Communications of 1,834 likely voters shows Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holding a narrow 41.2% to 40.5% edge over Democrat David Jolly in the 2026 governor’s race — a margin within the poll’s statistical uncertainty.
In the U.S. Senate contest, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody similarly leads Democratic challenger Alex Vindman by just over a point, 43.4% to 42.2%.
The tight polling comes even as Donalds has built a dominant financial position in the governor’s race. The Naples Republican raised $22.44 million in the first quarter, more than four times the combined total of his rivals and far ahead in the GOP primary field that includes Jay Collins, Paul Renner and James Fishback.
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A separate Republican poll earlier this year showed Donalds with a commanding primary lead, particularly after factoring in an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
In the Democratic primary, Jolly, a former U.S. Representative who served as a Republican before splitting with the party over the rise of Trump, raised $1.92 million. He’s pulled in nearly $5 million since starting his campaign last year and has about $1.9 million cash on hand.
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Jolly’s primary opponent, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, raised $329,000 in the first quarter and has $450,000 on hand.
The Source: This story was written based on polling data released on April 13, 2026, by MDW/Edge Communications and reporting by the News Service of Florida.