How much rain will the Orlando area get this week? Here's a look

ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a potential tropical or subtropical system forming from a weakening frontal boundary off the Southeast U.S. coast later this week. While development chances remain low, the system is expected to bring heavy rain and widespread thunderstorms, particularly across Florida, during one of the busiest travel periods of the year. 

Tropical moisture threatens Fourth of July plans

What we know:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a possible tropical or subtropical system that could emerge from the northeastern Gulf this week. 

Although the chances of development are currently low, the disturbance is expected to deliver heavy rainfall and widespread thunderstorms — especially across Florida — just as millions prepare to travel for the Fourth of July holiday. 

The tropical weather pattern will bring:

• Very high humidity, "top of the chart" levels for all of Central Florida.
• Numerous daily storms, showers, and downpours are NOT limited to the afternoon and evening. Any time of day is "fair game."
• Some storms at times may turn severe (60+ MPH wind gust and/or large hail of quarter size or larger).
• Any storms will produce extremely heavy rates of rain at times.
• Through the end of the week, although rain totals will vary immensely across the area based on where the biggest cells form, with several places will get over 5 inches of rain.

What we don't know:

Meteorologists have not pinpointed exactly where or if a defined tropical system will develop. It’s unclear whether this disturbance will reach tropical depression status or remain an unorganized but rain-heavy system. The exact timing and intensity of rainfall across different regions also remain uncertain, depending on how the system evolves through the weekend.

How much rain will the Orlando area get?

What To Expect:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across Central Florida throughout the week.

Rainfall totals will vary across the region, but several inches are expected to fall in nearly every county by the weekend. 

Coastal areas from the eastern Florida Panhandle southward through the Big Bend and into the Sarasota area will likely see the highest rain totals this week. Parts of Florida's Big Bend from about the Perry area through Cedar Key may receive as much as 6 to 10 inches.  

Orlando could see upwards of 5 to 8 inches of rain, with some locally higher amounts.  

Heavy rain is also expected along the Atlantic Coast of Florida from south of Jacksonville through Daytona Beach, as well as in communities along the Space Coast from Cocoa Beach to Melbourne.  

SIGN-UP FOR FOX 35'S BREAKING NEWS, DAILY NEWS NEWSLETTERS

Daily downpours and storms are likely, and meteorologists say the wet weather won’t be confined to the usual afternoon hours.

When will the heaviest rain arrive?

Timeline:

Meteorologists say showers and storms will be scattered on Monday with variable clouds that could keep the afternoon high from reaching 90 degrees. 

It will be a similar setup on Tuesday with chances of rain increasing significantly on Wednesday night into Thursday.

What to expect on July 4

Holiday Forecast:

Forecasters say Wednesday, July 2, through Friday, July 4, could be the wettest days of the week as deep tropical moisture moves over Central Florida.

"It's going to be a very rainy week in Orlando and Central Florida as a tropical air mass develops over Florida, bringing extremely humid air and lots of showers and storms across the area," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Rain amounts will vary greatly from county to county and city to city but several inches of rain will fall everywhere by the end of the week."

Rain chances will stay at 50% or higher through the holiday weekend into next week. Orlando could see the heaviest rain this weekend. 

"There is the potential for Orlando and some parts of Central Florida to receive 5 to 8 inches of rain by the weekend from this pattern," Bregern added. "Fireworks, Fourth of July, theme parks, and beach plans will all be impacted on Friday into the weekend will a lot of passing showers and storms."

Bergren said that if something tropical forms, it would be this weekend only.

"There is a chance for the Storm Team to extend the Impact Days into the weekend as we get closer," he said. "The takeaway is lots of showers, storms, and downpours will be around daily, and not limited to just the afternoon and evenings."

Looking Ahead:

The exact timing for the heaviest rain still needs to be fine-tuned as we move through this week, but models show several inches of rain could fall over the next seven days. By Saturday, as the tropical moisture moves over the Atlantic Ocean, the chances of a tropical depression forming off the Southeast United States increases.

Big picture view:

AAA projects a record 72.2 million Americans are expected to travel during the July Fourth weekend, driven by the holiday falling on a Friday. 

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX LOCAL APP

Flooding, rain, lightning, and possible flight delays are poised to impact travel from Florida along the eastern seaboard.  Cities from Tampa and Orlando to New York and Boston may see weather-related disruptions, making travel logistics challenging nationwide.

Fireworks will be dampened across Central Florida with the likelihood of heavy rain.

2025 Atlantic storm names

Dig deeper:

Whenever the next named storm develops in the Atlantic Basin, it will get the name Chantal.

NewsFlorida