National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Jerry remains on track to strengthen into hurricane in coming days

Orlando Weather Forecast PM: October 9th, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking a recap of Hurricane Milton from 1 year ago, and a Weather Impact Day for potential flooding Friday.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Although Tropical Storm Jerry is struggling as it continues to spin across the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says it still remains on track to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days.

Tracking Tropical Storm Jerry

What we know:

As of late Thursday, Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 100 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. 

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The NHC says Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

The storm currently has maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts, and topical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly to the east of the center.

The storm's estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

Although the struggling storm is being impacted by moderate to strong wind shear, preventing it from strengthening at a faster rate, forecasters still say gradual strengthening of the storm is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

The NHC said that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hurricane Hunters will fly into the tropical storm to investigate on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into Friday. Heavy rain, flash flooding, large swells, and life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected in the area. 

Invest 96L

What we know:

Meanwhile, the NHC is tracking Invest 96L, a gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure in the North Atlantic. The system is located several hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores, which is producing limited shower activity near its center.

Some subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger shear environment. 

The system currently only has a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and week.

System in the Southwestern Gulf

What we know:

Lastly, the NHC has its eyes on a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, associated with some disorganized showers and thunderstorms, that has moved inland over Southern Mexico. 

Heavy rain and gusty winds will continue across portions of Southern Mexico today.

Development of the system is not expected, and formation chances are at 0% over the next 48 hours and week. 

(Credit: National Hurricane Center)

2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Big picture view:

Now that we are in October, our focus will start to shift from activity in the Central Atlantic to activity possibly brewing in the Caribbean and the Gulf. 

The Central American Gyre is a low pressure system that forms over Central America and pulls in moisture from the Gulf, the Atlantic and the Pacific. This annual pattern can lead to tropical activity in the back half of the season.

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.