Tropical depression could form over Gulf later this week, forecasters say

Tropics update: July 22, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs June 1 - Nov. 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.

ORLANDO, Fla. - A tropical depression could form later this week in the Gulf, but meteorologists say the system poses no threat to Florida.

What we know:

Meteorologists are monitoring a system in the Gulf that could slowly develop into a tropical depression later this week. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and FOX 35’s Storm Team emphasize it poses no threat to Florida.

The disturbance is expected to bring enhanced rainfall to parts of coastal Texas or Louisiana before moving inland this weekend.

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What we don't know:

It remains unclear whether the system will develop at all. Both the 48-hour and seven-day formation chances are low, sitting at 10%, according to the NHC. It’s also uncertain how much rain the system might bring to other Gulf Coast states if it strengthens before landfall.

The backstory:

The cluster of tropical moisture is currently moving west-southwestward into the north-central Gulf. While tropical development is unlikely, the moisture could still fuel heavy rainfall in parts of the northern Gulf Coast. 

These types of "tropical blobs" are not unusual during this time of year but rarely amount to organized storms when close to land and in marginal atmospheric conditions.

Big picture view:

Florida remains outside the zone of concern, with meteorologists pointing to quiet conditions across the broader Atlantic basin. 

Despite the early stirrings in the Gulf, overall tropical activity is low. Instead, the focus in Central Florida may soon turn toward intensifying heat and humidity, which are forecast to bring heat index values over 110 degrees this weekend — potentially the hottest of the year.

What they're saying:

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren said the cluster of tropical moisture moving westward may bring enhanced rainfall to parts of coastal Texas or Louisiana later this week — but not the Sunshine State.

"It’s no concern for us at all," Bergren said. "That tropical blob? Zero impact for Florida."

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Elsewhere in the tropics, conditions remain relatively quiet.

"There’s currently nothing in the deep tropics," Bergren added. "The Atlantic basin has a lid over it."

Back in Florida, it was a relatively quiet evening after scattered storms earlier in the day. While some areas — particularly Citrus and Marion counties — saw heavy rainfall, other regions remained largely dry. Rain totals ranged widely, with nearly 7 inches recorded in parts of Ocala and close to 4.5 inches in Melbourne.

"Looking back, I’ll admit the forecast overestimated how widespread the rain would be," Bergren said. 

The bigger weather headline may soon shift to extreme heat.

"Humidity isn’t going anywhere either," Bergren warned. "Dew points will remain in the upper-70s for the foreseeable future."