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Orlando Weather Forecast PM: Memorial Day Weekend Storms, Tracking Tropics
FOX 35 Storm Team Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking lots of heat and humidity, and when a big pattern change may bring lots of rain to Florida into early June.
ORLANDO, Fla. - Central Florida has had an appetizer of the rainy season, but has not yet officially gotten into the rainy season for 2026.
That will change for good late next week as a big pattern change develops.
What we know:
Atmospheric flow from the Caribbean will surge and push a bunch of moisture north toward Florida. Starting about next Thursday, several days to a week or so of mid-summer level rain chances, downpours, and storms.
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Also, much higher humidity is expected. Which is great news for Florida drought being the worst in 25-plus years statewide.
How much rain?
The mean of every computer model averaged together shows a high chance of several inches of rain statewide. While far from drought ending, it could put a big dent in the drought for central Florida. Some places getting over five inches of rain seems like a possibility for a few days, starting at the end of next week.
High chances for lots of showers and storms on a daily basis.
Could there be a tropical system in June?
The models are hinting at the potential for at least some weak tropical development in the Florida vicinity or off the Southeast Coast of the United States next weekend into the first few days of June. The high chance of lots of rain and enhanced daily storms is the headline and bigger story, but there is at least a chance either a hybrid system or weak tropical entity could spin up.
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Super reliable in long range, the EURO AI model shows a weak system trying to form next weekend. If it does, it could enhance rain chances and gusty winds for some in the Southeast.
This is not a shock, as the Southeast and Gulf are historically the area to watch commonly for June tropical systems. That almost always stays on the weaker side.
Arthur is the first name up for 2026. If it does form, it will likely remain weak and off the Southeast Coast of the U.S.
"It's something to watch but nothing to be worked up over," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Bigger story, lots of daily rain and storms."
The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the FOX 35 Storm Team