Tropical Storm Gabrielle 'struggling' over Atlantic but still forecast to become hurricane, NHC says
Tracking the tropics: AM Sept. 18, 2025
FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner gives us a look at the latest developments in the tropics as Tropical Storm Gabrielle "struggles" to better organize as it spins across the Central Atlantic. Garner is also looking at two other disturbances in the Atlantic.
ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Gabrielle is "struggling" to better organize as it spins across the Central Atlantic, but forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) say it’s still forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early next week.
Tracking Tropical Storm Gabrielle
What we know:
As of 5 a.m. on Thursday, the NHC says Tropical Storm Gabrielle was roughly 845 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.
The storm is moving west-northwest near 15 mph, forecasters say. A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected during the next few days.
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Maximum sustained winds for the storm remain near 50 mph with higher gusts, and its estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Gabrielle is expected to stay east of Florida and the eastern United States. However, Bermuda should monitor the forecast for potential impacts.
What's next:
As of Thursday, the NHC said little change in storm strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast late in the weekend. Tropical Storm Gabrielle could become a Category 1 hurricane by Monday.
The NHC said that atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for further development over the next few days, and Tropical Storm Gabrielle could either "hold steady or lose strength during that time."
"Gabrielle continues to struggle and consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep convection over the northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm," the NHC said in its latest discussion. "The poor structure is due to westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air that is continuously entraining into the circulation."
The backstory:
Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which had been known as Invest 92L and then Tropical Depression Seven, formed on Wednesday after a weeks-long lull in tropical activity.
2 disturbances in the Atlantic
What we know:
An area to watch for possible tropical development west of the Cabo Verde Islands is continuing to produce disorganized shower activity, but the NHC is now saying development of the system is no longer expected as it moves westward over the Eastern and Central Atlantic.
The system currently has a 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours and seven days.
However, a new tropical wave is expected to move off the western coast of Africa by Friday morning.
The NHC said some slow development of the system is possible over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves to the west-northwestward across the Eastern and Central Atlantic.
The system currently has a 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.
What's the difference between a tropical storm and a tropical depression?
Dig deeper:
Hurricanes begin as cyclones, and if the system intensifies, it becomes a tropical wave, then a tropical depression, followed by a tropical storm and, eventually, a hurricane.
When a low pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms producing a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph, the system is designated a tropical depression.
If the cyclonic circulation becomes more organized with maximum sustained wind gusts between 39 mph and 73 mph, a tropical storm is formed.
A tropical storm has winds near the center and is symmetrical, while a subtropical storm has winds far from the center and is less symmetrical. A tropical storm is fueled by warm water, while a subtropical storm is fueled by warm water and cold air.
2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Big picture view:
The "peak" of hurricane season was on Sept. 10. August, September and October are considered the most active parts of the season, which runs through Nov. 30.
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The next name on the Atlantic storm list is Humberto, followed by Imelda and Jerry.
The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), FOX Weather and the FOX 35 Storm Team on Sept. 18, 2025.