Tropical Storm Jerry forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, NHC says

Orlando Weather Forecast PM: October 8th, 2025

FOX 35 Storm Team Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren is tracking rising rain chances Friday and a big drop in the humidity this weekend!

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Jerry is continuing to gain strength on Wednesday and is now forecast to become a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Tracking Tropical Storm Jerry

What we know:

As of Wednesday evening, Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 560 miles east-southwest of the Northern Leeward Islands. 

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The NHC says Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north beginning on Friday. 

On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the Northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Forecasters say the storm currently has maximum sustained winds near 65 mph with higher gusts, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from its center. The estimated minimum central pressure of the storm is 999 mb.

Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for portions of the Northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rainfall will also bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. In addition, swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

System in the Southwestern Gulf

What we know:

The NHC is also tracking a trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche which is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 

Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over Southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. 

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of Southern Mexico during the next day or so.

The system currently only has a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and seven days.

2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Big picture view:

No other activity is being tracked in the Atlantic at this time, but now that we are in October, our focus will start to shift from activity in the Central Atlantic to activity possibly brewing in the Caribbean and the Gulf. 

The Central American Gyre is a low pressure system that forms over Central America and pulls in moisture from the Gulf, the Atlantic and the Pacific. This annual pattern can lead to tropical activity in the back half of the season.

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.