NHC tracking new tropical wave in central Atlantic: What we know, timeline
Tropics Update: July 18, 2025
FOX 35 Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs June 1 - November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.
ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center has tagged a developing tropical wave in the far Atlantic with official odds of becoming a tropical system next week.
What we know:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic and has given it official odds for potential development — 20% over the next seven days.
Forecast models, including the FOX Model, suggest the system could organize into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, possibly Monday or Tuesday.
What they're saying:
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring this wave for possible development.
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"Wind shear is very high in the Caribbean, so whatever this decides to do early next week, we will get to an area of hostile conditions for tropical systems around Puerto Rico at the end of next week," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "For now, in the very long term, no threat to Florida, but we will watch close."
Timeline:
The window for development appears favorable through next Wednesday, after which increasing wind shear — especially in the Caribbean near Puerto Rico — will likely disrupt any intensification. The system currently poses no threat to the U.S., including Florida, over the long term.
What we don't know:
It remains unclear whether the system will strengthen enough to be named or how long it might persist under worsening atmospheric conditions. While models hint at some development, forecasters caution that the outcome remains uncertain and highly dependent on evolving wind patterns.
Big picture view:
With the Atlantic hurricane season entering a more active phase, forecasters are closely watching any signs of early formation. However, experts emphasize that this particular system is not expected to impact the U.S., though it will be monitored closely.
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The next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane list is Dexter.
The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricance Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team.